With Selection Sunday fast approaching, teams are making their final push to solidify their spots in the NCAA tournament. While resumes ultimately determine seeding, momentum plays a crucial role, as recent hot and cold streaks have caused significant shifts in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology.
Teams like Michigan State, Clemson, and Brigham Young have climbed the rankings with impressive winning streaks, while powerhouses like Kansas and Purdue have seen their stock fall. It’s not just the major conferences making waves—programs from the Mountain West and West Coast Conference are also proving they deserve recognition.
As most teams enter the final stretch of the regular season, a few will soon turn their focus to conference tournaments. Here’s a breakdown of teams on the rise and those trending downward in the projected bracket.
Teams on the Rise
Michigan State (Projected No. 2 Seed, South Region)
The Spartans are surging after a huge week, climbing two seed lines thanks to wins over Purdue and Michigan. Now tied for the Big Ten lead with an 8-4 Quad 1 record, Michigan State is in a strong position to stay on the No. 2 line. They face a crucial stretch ahead, with four more Quad 1 matchups to close out the regular season.
Clemson (Projected No. 5 Seed, West Region)
The Tigers are proving the ACC is still a force in college basketball, moving up three seed lines this month. Wins over Duke and three additional double-digit victories have solidified their spot, and their No. 22 NET ranking is second-best in the ACC. With a relatively easy schedule ahead, Clemson is in prime position for a top-five seed.
Utah State (Projected No. 7 Seed, East Region)
The Aggies are back in the top half of the bracket after an impressive three-line jump. Their dominant win over San Diego State strengthened their resume, pushing their Quad 1 and 2 record to 10-4. Key road games against Boise State and Colorado State present more opportunities to boost their standing.
Saint Mary’s (Projected No. 6 Seed, West Region)
The Gaels are no strangers to solid tournament seeds and are trending in that direction again. They clinched the WCC regular-season title and swept Gonzaga for the first time since 2015-16. Their No. 16 NET ranking and 4-2 Quad 1 record make them a strong bet for at least a No. 6 seed.
Brigham Young (BYU) (Projected No. 8 Seed, East Region)
BYU was on the bubble just weeks ago but has since shot up the board thanks to a four-game winning streak featuring three Quad 1 victories over Kansas, West Virginia, and Arizona. A potential win over Arizona State could further solidify their position.
Oklahoma (Projected No. 12 Seed, South Region – First Four)
The Sooners were on the outside looking in, but a critical win over Mississippi State has moved them into the First Four. However, their work isn’t done—four remaining Quad 1 games will determine if they stay in the field or fall back out.
Teams on the Declinestrong>
Purdue (Projected No. 4 Seed, East Region)
A four-game losing streak has dropped the Boilermakers from a No. 2 seed to No. 4. While their strong overall resume is keeping them in the top 16, a bad loss to Indiana has hurt their momentum. A matchup with UCLA this Friday is critical to avoid falling further.
Kansas (Projected No. 7 Seed, West Region)
The Jayhawks were the preseason No. 1 but have fallen drastically due to multiple bad losses, including a blowout against BYU. While they bounced back with wins over Oklahoma State and Colorado, their upcoming tough schedule will determine whether they can climb back up.
Illinois (Projected No. 9 Seed, South Region)
Once projected as a No. 4 seed, Illinois has collapsed following three consecutive losses, including a blowout defeat against Duke at Madison Square Garden. Though they picked up a key win against Iowa, they face a must-win matchup against Michigan to stop their slide.
Gonzaga (Projected No. 10 Seed, Midwest Region)
Mark Few’s Sweet 16 streak is in jeopardy, as the Bulldogs are now a double-digit seed. A season sweep by Saint Mary’s has left them with a weak 2-6 Quad 1 record. Their NET ranking ensures they’ll make the tournament, but their lowest seeding since 2016 means a tough path ahead.
Ohio State (Projected No. 11 Seed, Midwest Region – First Four)
A 15-13 record and 8-13 Quad 1 and 2 record have the Buckeyes hanging by a thread. Losses to Northwestern and UCLA have raised major concerns, and they cannot afford to lose to USC on Wednesday if they want to stay in the tournament picture.
Georgia (Currently Out)
After starting 14-2, the Bulldogs collapsed with a 2-9 stretch, falling out of the tournament field. However, a massive upset over Florida gave them a third Quad 1 victory, which keeps them in the conversation. More wins will be needed to fully re-enter the bracket discussion.
Final Thoughts
With just over a week left in the regular season, teams still have chances to improve or hurt their seeding. Conference tournaments will also play a major role in determining which bubble teams make the cut.
Houston remains the top No. 1 seed, while Michigan State, Clemson, and BYU are making strong pushes up the board. Meanwhile, traditional powerhouses like Purdue, Kansas, and Gonzaga are in danger of lower-than-usual seeding.
As the madness of March approaches, expect even more movement before Selection Sunday.
